The Albanese Government is forecasting in its first Budget that wage growth won't exceed headline consumer price inflation until the end of next financial year.
The FWC's new leading indicator of bargained wage rises - officially launched today - shows that deals lodged in the first half of last month paid an average increase of 3%, up on those in the most recent DEWR data.
The risk of Australia experiencing a wage-price spiral is "quite low" thanks in part to the diminished "pricing power" of workers and the central bank's focus on inflation targets, a new RBA report asserts.
Teleworking, retraining and enhanced collective bargaining could lift pay growth that has been constrained by Australia's relatively "monopsonistic" labour market that gives a few dominant employers the upper hand in wage-setting, according to the OECD.
The FWC has promised today to provide "real-time" data on bargained pay rises, with plans to issue fortnightly reports on wage movements in enterprise agreement approval applications, with the first "proposed report" showing a 3.2% average annualised rise in the first two weeks of July, well ahead of the last official departmental number for the March quarter of 2.7%.
Private sector rates of pay increased by 2.7% annually in the June quarter, lifting off historic lows but failing to make much of a dent on surging inflation.
In the wake of the RBA governor's warning about the risks of a wage-price spiral, new A-G's department data shows that bargained pay rises are flatlining at 2.7% a year in the private sector, rising at little more than half the 5.1% rate of headline consumer price inflation.
A new RBA report says that greater job mobility tends to be associated with higher individual and aggregate wages and makes it clear the "great resignation" is a distinctly American and British phenomenon.
NSW's Perrottet Government has raised its 2.5% wage ceiling to 3% next financial year and up to 3.5% in 2023-24, in the face of incomes falling behind consumer price inflation and unions taking industrial action seeking to scrap the cap.
