Private sector rates of pay increased to 3.4% annually in the September quarter, up from 2.7% in the previous three-month period, according to the ABS, but aneamic public sector rises have restricted the economy-wide rise to 3.1%.
The Albanese Government is forecasting in its first Budget that wage growth won't exceed headline consumer price inflation until the end of next financial year.
Agreements lodged with the FWC in the fortnight to September 9 delivered annual rises of just 2.4% – the lowest in the short history of the Commission's "real-time" bargained wage data – after education deals effectively paying 1.7% a year to more than 10,000 workers dragged down the average increase.
Private sector agreements approved by the FWC in the June quarter paid average annualised wage increases of 2.9%, lifting growth to the fastest pace in two years, but remaining at less than half of the CPI.
In a shift in emphasis after calling for limits on pay rises to avoid a wage-price spiral, RBA Governor Philip Lowe today called for businesses to avoid using skyrocketing inflation "as cover" for increasing their profit margins.
The FWC has promised today to provide "real-time" data on bargained pay rises, with plans to issue fortnightly reports on wage movements in enterprise agreement approval applications, with the first "proposed report" showing a 3.2% average annualised rise in the first two weeks of July, well ahead of the last official departmental number for the March quarter of 2.7%.
The nexus between low unemployment and rising wages is broken, with the "hydraulic pressure" of a tight labour market undermined by systemic "leaks" and "loopholes", according to workplace relations minister Tony Burke.
Private sector rates of pay increased by 2.7% annually in the June quarter, lifting off historic lows but failing to make much of a dent on surging inflation.
The RBA is expecting the near-8% year-end headline inflation spike to only ease to 6.25% in the middle of next year, while it is turning its guns on the ABS wage price index, which it perceives as too narrow.
Former FWC Deputy President Peter Sams has foreshadowed the Federal Labor Government might introduce sector-wide bargaining changes by the end of the year in a bid to boost wage growth, but an employment law academic says there are three clear roadblocks to such a move.
