RBA monetary policy board member and former FWC president Iain Ross has dismissed fears Australia could experience a damaging wage-price spiral despite the recent sharp rises in inflation
The ACTU has stopped conducting a survey of union officials on their inflation expectations that it previously provided to the RBA, because of its influence on the central bank's interest rates decisions, but says it is committed to developing a better methodology.
Growth in private sector rates of pay is continuing to ease, falling from 3.6% a year in trend terms to 3.3%, while public sector growth has also dropped, according to the ABS.
A RBA research paper co-authored by board member and former FWC head Iain Ross says wage rises have peaked across all pay-setting methods, but real unit labour costs are continuing to outpace WPI growth and contribute to elevated underlying inflation, largely driven by compulsory super increases.
The RBA says several new early indicators it has developed in-house are helping it to build a "fuller view" of wage movements ahead of the release of official figures.
The highly-orthodox IMF has told the RBA's annual research conference that it is "hard to find" recent wage-price spirals across advanced economies and that pay acceleration "should not be seen as a sign" that the corkscrew feared by the central bank "is taking hold", in a session in which new board member and former FWC president Iain Ross led discussion.
Higher job mobility and labour hoarding might weigh on short-term labour productivity growth, but could also boost it in the long-term, the RBA says in new research.
The RBA is anticipating stronger wage growth for the rest of the year than it did a few months ago, thanks to the removal of states' wages caps, the FWC's substantial minimum pay ruling and the aged care work value rise.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe, who earned the ire of unions and some in the Albanese Government with his repeated warnings about the risks of a wage-price spiral, is set to be replaced at the end of his term by his deputy, Michele Bullock, who will be the first woman to lead the central bank.
